Gerrymandering:
The practice of dividing or arranging a territorial unit into election districts that goes AGAINST your political self-interest or agenda.
Redistricting:
The practice of dividing or arranging a territorial unit into election districts that goes IN FAVOR of your political self-interest or agenda.
In the never ending quagmire that is partisan redistricting in Wisconsin, the State Supreme Court has reversed course and approved the maps proposed by the Republican-controlled State Legislature.
This ruling comes just a few short weeks since the U.S. Supreme Court ruled that the Wisconsin State Supreme Court did not properly follow the guidelines in the Voting Rights Act when selecting the redistricting map as proposed by Governor Tony Evers.
Justice Brian Hagedorn, who had previously angered Republicans by siding with the Court’s liberal justices in approving the redistricting map drawn by Governor Evers, is now the knight in shining armor for conservatives having switched sides to approve the redistricting map proposed by the GOP Legislature. Justice Hagedorn, who ran as a conservative with strong ties to former Republican Governor Scott Walker, has proven to be the maverick of the State Supreme Court. Justice Hagedorn was the swing vote in both decisions which came down to 4-3 votes.
Ruling’s Impact on November 2022
The consensus is that the maps drawn by the Republican Legislature will favor the Assembly GOP in roughly 63 of the 99 seats and the Senate GOP in roughly 23 of 33 seats. That puts the Republicans in close range of a "veto proof" majority of 67 votes. The current party split in the Assembly is 61-38 and 21-12 in the Senate in favor of Republicans in both houses.
A veto proof majority makes life extremely difficult for any Democratic Governor. Frankly any Governor mostly becomes a puppet of the Legislature whether they are in the same party or not. A "red wave" year where Republicans win by large margins nationally could easily tip
The timing of the approval of the Republican Legislature’s map was somewhat politically necessary. April 15th is the beginning of nomination signature collection period which lasts until June 1st for November 2022 elections. Without having defined districts, politicians would not be able to collect signatures to get their name listed on the ballot for their respective seats.
The nomination signature collection process may prevent any future redistricting lawsuits from changing the maps until the next election cycle. Redrawing, or even making minor district boundary edits now that the nomination signature process has started would seemingly force a reset of the entire election cycle.
Response from Wisconsin Elected Officials
Assembly Speaker Robin Vos, who was highly influential in drawing the newly approved maps, as well as having a hand in the maps that were in place for the last ten years, anything but understated in his response to the Court’s decision.
“We have thought our maps were the best option from the beginning. We appreciate the court’s due diligence and are glad to move forward with these maps that make the least changes and comply with traditional redistricting criteria,” said Speaker Vos.
Speaker Vos continued: “It is a relief to have this resolved in time for candidates to circulate nomination papers for the upcoming elections, and for voters to know what districts will be used this fall.”
Thank the maker that the politicians will not be inconvenienced! Full snark intended.
With an unsurprisingly different take, Assembly Minority Leader Greta Neubauer was quick to issue Twitter statements that she was not all about the Court’s reversal.
“I am incredibly disappointed that after an unprecedented action by the US Supreme Court, the conservative majority of the Wisconsin State Supreme Court imposed an even more unrepresentative, gerrymandered legislative map. This decision was nakedly political and undemocratic,” tweeted Assembly Democratic Minority Leader Greta Neubauer.
“These maps dilute the power of Black communities in Wisconsin, which experts believe violates the Voting Rights Act. These maps are not representative of Wisconsin — they are a power grab. Today, justice has been denied,” Minority Leader Neubauer continued.
Ironically, everyone seems to be citing a violation of the application of rules put forward in the Voting Rights Act. The maps proposed by Governor Tony Evers were rejected by the U.S. Supreme Court in part due to improperly following guidelines in the Voting Rights Act. Now opponents of the Legislature’s map claim that it too violates the Voting Rights Act.
The Two Big Winners Under Maps Drawn by the Legislature
There were two big winners with the State Supreme Court choosing to use the maps drawn by the Legislature this election cycle. They are big winners, not so much because the State Legislature sought to give them a new advantage, but rather because the map drawn by Gov. Evers went out of its way to specifically target two elected officials: State Senator Dale Kooyenga and U.S. Congressman Bryan Steil.
State Senator Dale Kooyenga
The biggest winner in the selection of the Legislature’s district map is State Senator Dale Kooyenga (R-Brookfield). Under the previously approved map proposed by Governor Evers, Senator Kooyenga was drawn out of his district by a matter of 9 houses. Now that the State Supreme Court has returned to the district boundaries proposed by the State Legislature, Senator Kooyenga finds himself once again living in his own district.
U.S. Representative Bryan Steil
In the instance of U.S. Representative Bryan Steil (WI CD-01), he will simply continue to enjoy a relatively safe path to re-election year-in and year-out. The Gov. Evers’ map made the Wisconsin First Congressional seat significantly more competitive and possibly even a vulnerable seat in a “blue wave” year where Democrats outperform Republicans nationwide or vulnerable to a strong Democratic challenger.
In Limbo: Is Wisconsin’s Third Congressional District About to Flip?
Surprisingly, the Gov. Evers’ map did very to preserve the 3rd Congressional District Seat being vacated by longtime incumbent Representative Ron Kind. Of course, the Republican Legislature's map did not do any favors for Democrats in the 3rd CD either. The 3rd CD which has been trending towards the political right over the last decade was won by President Donald Trump 51.5% to 46.8% despite Trump losing the state at large (and the national election).
Wisconsin Republicans and conservative interest groups think they have a strong candidate in Derrick Van Orden who will face the winner of a likely 4-way Democratic Primary. Van Orden narrowly lost to two-decade incumbent Rep. Kind by a vote of 51.3% to 48.6% in 2020. Now an open seat, Van Orden will also be aided by the historical trend that Midterm Elections favor the party that does not hold The White House which is a plus for the Republican.
Love these maps or hate these maps, it seems likely that for the 2022 August Primary and November General Election that these are going to be the maps. They may even remain the electoral maps for the next decade.
If you think evil Wisconsin Republicans are the only ones who “abuse” redistricting for political gain, look no further than Illinois for an example of Democrats wielding the same partisan tool.
Yorumlar