Challenger, Lieutenant Governor Mandela Barnes, has finally reversed his post-primary skid and forced a modest regression in previously growing support for incumbent Senator Ron Johnson over the same period.
After getting constantly badgered by a broad field of Democratic Primary candidates, Sen. Johnson entered the General Election period well-bruised.
He maintained a relatively low profile, in a campaign sense, until after the primary.
So the Democratic Primary pushed Sen. Johnson to his floor of support.
Conversely, Lt. Gov. Barnes not only floated through the Democratic Primary, he benefitted from a mass exodus of most of his opponents in the closing weeks of the race, all of whom endorsed Barnes as they dropped out.
Since his Primary coronation, Barnes has been the target of a barrage of negative ads and a much higher level of scrutiny into some of his personal life foibles - nothing egregious or criminal, but som minor faux pas.
Polling well within the margin of error with one week to go, neither campaign should be overconfident.
Johnson has a few factors working in his favor:
2022 should be a so-called red wave year that history suggests favors Republicans with Democrat President Joe Biden in the White House.
Midterm turnout also traditionally favors Republicans.
Conservatives are also hoping for a 2016-style “Trump bump” where Republican candidates outperform polling.
Barnes hasn’t closed the polling gap but he has reversed his downward trend. Can he complete the turnaround before Election Day? He would need strong turnout in Milwaukee and other Wisconsin cities and among young voters. He is also hoping issues such as January 6th and abortion push motivate moderates and push them to the left.
Election Day is Tuesday, November 8th.
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