Republican businessperson Tim Michels has matched incumbent Democrat Governor Tony Evers 48-48% in the latest Marquette University Law School Poll.
Michels has consistently grown his support since winning the Republican Gubernatorial Primary on August 9th.
Gov. Evers, who had a slight 1-point dip in support in the MU Law Poll in previous months, inched back up to 48%.
Gov. Evers has to be concerned that he has more or less statistically flatlined, while Michels has made steady improvement and is now neck and neck with the incumbent.
Michels has history on his side. Midterm elections historically favor the party that does not hold The White House, currently occupied by Democratic President Joe Biden who has campaigned for Evers this cycle.
Michels has publicly stated that he believes his support is higher than what polls have indicated, similar to Donald Trump in 2016. Though Michels stated he thought the difference might be 5-10% it would probably be more along the lines of 1-3%. However, in a race this close, that would be all it takes.
Michels also has the advantage that Republicans have historically stronger turnout in Midterm Elections compared to Democrats.
Reports indicate that Democrats are doing better in early voting but are still well shy of their dominant 2020 early voting numbers.
Gov. Evers has been extremely well funded, has stronger statewide name ID, and the power of incumbency on his side. Democrats nationwide are fighting to keep the Wisconsin Governor’s Mansion under Democratic control.
The only poll that matters is Election Day, Tuesday, November 8th.
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